Reference
K. Verbert, B. De Schutter, and R. Babuška, "A multiple-model
reliability prediction approach for condition-based maintenance,"
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, vol. 67, no. 3, pp.
1364-1376, Sept. 2018.
Abstract
Numerous prognostic methods have been developed, aiming at predicting future
system reliability with the highest possible accuracy. It is striking that the
relation with the subsequent maintenance optimization process is generally
overlooked, while it is important in practice. Additionally, almost all
existing methods are based on a single degradation measure, and focus on
systems with only one degradation and failure mode. In practice, however,
multiple degradation measures are often available and needed to adequately
predict future system degradation. Moreover, systems may suffer from various
kinds of faults, all resulting in different degradation behaviors. To
accommodate these properties, we establish a link between failure prognosis and
maintenance optimization, and accordingly propose a multivariate multiple-model
approach to system reliability prediction. We conclude that in the presence of
multiple degradation modes and provided they are correctly identified, a
multiple-model approach outperforms a single-model approach with respect to
prediction accuracy. Moreover, in the presence of multiple degradation and
failure modes, overall predictions of the remaining useful life as generated by
common prognostic approaches are not directly suited for maintenance decision
making, as different kinds of system failures and maintenance activities are
associated with different costs. In contrast, our approach yields conditional
predictions of future system reliability, which much better suit the
maintenance optimization process.
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BibTeX
@article{VerDeS:18-028,
author = {Verbert, Kim and De Schutter, Bart and Babu{\v{s}}ka, Robert},
title = {A Multiple-Model Reliability Prediction Approach for
Condition-Based Maintenance},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Reliability},
volume = {67},
number = {3},
pages = {1364--1376},
month = sep,
year = {2018}
}