Probabilistic Defect-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Rail Failures in Railway Infrastructure

Reference

A. Jamshidi, S. Faghih Roohi, A. Núñez, R. Babuska, B. De Schutter, R. Dollevoet, and Z. Li, "Probabilistic defect-based risk assessment approach for rail failures in railway infrastructure," Proceedings of the 14th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems (CTS 2016), Istanbul, Turkey, pp. 73-77, May 2016.

Abstract

This paper develops a defect-based risk analysis methodology for estimating rail failure risk. The methodology relies on an evolution model addressing the severity level of rail surface defect, called squat. The risk of rail failure is assessed by analysing squat failure probability using a probabilistic analysis of the squat cracks. For this purpose, a Bayesian inference method is employed to capture a robust model of squat failure probability when the squat becomes severe. Moreover, an experimental correlation between squat visual length and squat crack depth is obtained in order to define four severity categories. Relying on the failure probability and the severity categories of the squats, risk of future failure is categorised in three different scenarios (optimistic, average and pessimistic). To show the practicality and efficiency of the proposed methodology, a real example is illustrated.

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BibTeX

@inproceedings{JamFag:16-016,
   author    = {Jamshidi, Ali and Faghih Roohi, Shahrzad and N{\'{u}}{\~{n}}ez,
                Alfredo and Babuska, Robert and De Schutter, Bart and
                Dollevoet, Rolf and Li, Zili},
   title     = {Probabilistic Defect-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Rail
                Failures in Railway Infrastructure},
   booktitle = {Proceedings of the 14th IFAC Symposium on Control in
                Transportation Systems (CTS 2016)},
   address   = {Istanbul, Turkey},
   pages     = {73--77},
   month     = may,
   year      = {2016}
   }

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